DA Davidson Analyst Predicted Nvidia Would Drop 20% by Year-End. It Rallied 173% Instead.

In May 2024, while the rest of Wall Street was tripping over itself to raise Nvidia price targets, DA Davidson's Gil Luria was the lone voice of doom. His thesis? Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google would develop their own AI chips, leaving Nvidia in the dust. "The reason we're not quite as bullish as everybody else is we're looking at the horizon," he warned ominously. He predicted a 20% decline by year-end, confident that demand for Nvidia's GPUs would dry up as customers "stockpiled" enough chips. The actual result? Nvidia closed 2024 up 172.8%, making it one of the best-performing stocks of the year. Those "competing" customers? Still desperately trying to get their hands on every H100 and Blackwell chip Nvidia can produce. The horizon Luria was so carefully watching apparently didn't include a $3 trillion market cap.