Motley Fool: 70% Odds of Stock Market Crash in 2026. Market: Nah.

The Motley Fool laid out the historical playbook for midterm election years: midterm elections create uncertainty, uncertainty tanks stocks, S&P 500 averages just 1% returns and suffers an average 18% intra-year drawdown. The odds of a correction? 70%. Sound scary. There was just one problem with this thesis: it forgot to account for the fact that AI spending apparently overrides everything else in 2026. By late June, the S&P 500 was up 7%+ year-to-date—not down. The 70% odds of a correction? Still waiting. The expected flat returns? Already exceeded 7x over. Turns out the stock market can read, and it skipped the part about midterm election jitters when it saw AI and Fed rate cuts were on the menu.