Jeremy Grantham Predicts 70% Crash (Again). Markets Yawn (Again).

On Tuesday, legendary doomster Jeremy Grantham returned to CNBC with apocalyptic tidings: a 70% market crash is coming, positioning today's valuations as worse than the 2000 tech bubble or 2008 housing crisis. Dramatic stuff. Problem: Grantham has been predicting exactly this since at least 2022. In early 2023, he forecast the crash would accelerate in late 2024 when the Fed cut rates. We're now halfway through 2026—the market shrugged, rallied 20% this year, and Grantham is still waiting. His defenders point to 2000 (he called 70-75% NASDAQ decline, got 82%) and 2007 (saw it coming). But between then and now? Mostly calls for crashes that didn't crash on schedule. Joe Kernen actually called him out on air: If the crash you're predicting doesn't get you anywhere near the level where you first started predicting, it's not very useful advice, is it? Grantham is either the world's most patient permabear or a cautionary tale about prediction decay. Either way, his track record says: listen, but maybe set a 4-year expiration date on the timing.