Aged Like Milk

JPMorgan's "Gandalf" Predicted a 23% Market Crash. Days Later, He Was Fired. The Market Rallied 25% Instead.

Posted March 17, 2026

"The S&P 500 will plunge to 4,200 by year-end."

— Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist

June 28, 2024

What Actually Happened

Marko Kolanovic earned the nickname "Gandalf" for his legendary 2020 call that the S&P 500 would shake off COVID and hit record highs within months. The man could see the future. Then he couldn't. After getting 2022 wrong (bullish into a crash), then 2023 wrong (bearish into a rally), Kolanovic doubled down in June 2024 with his boldest call yet: the S&P 500 would plunge 23% to 4,200 by year-end. It was the lowest price target of any major bank on Wall Street. Five days later, JPMorgan "wished him well in his future endeavors." The S&P 500? It closed 2024 at 5,882 — up 25% for the year. The wizard's magic had run out, but at least he left Wall Street on his own terms. Sort of.

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