White House Trade Advisor Promised Tariffs Would Raise $700 Billion a Year. The Actual Amount Was $240 Billion. Then the Supreme Court Ruled It All Illegal.

On Fox News Sunday, just three days before "Liberation Day," Navarro delivered these projections with the confidence of a man who had clearly never taken an economics course. The math was simple: $3.3 trillion in imports × 20% tariff = $660 billion. What Navarro forgot: people buy less stuff when it costs more. Also, other countries retaliate. Also, the economy shrinks when you tax all imports. Almost exactly one year later, the actual additional tariff revenue came in around $240 billion — enough to fund approximately 12 days of federal government spending. Economists had warned the real number would be "less than half" of Navarro's estimate; they were being generous. The real punchline? In February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled the Liberation Day tariffs were illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ordering the government to prepare billions in refunds to importers. So Navarro didn't just miss by 65% — he raised money the government may have to give back.