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Goldman Sachs Called It: Markets Would Face a 15% Correction in Q1 2025

Posted April 10, 2026

"We expect equity markets to face a significant pullback in the first quarter of 2025 given stretched valuations and macro headwinds."

— Goldman Sachs Equity Strategy Team, Late December 2024

December 27, 2024

What Actually Happened

The GS team warned institutional investors to prepare for pain—citing AI bubble concerns, elevated valuations, and potential recession risks. Corporate earnings were supposedly in trouble. Tech was supposedly vulnerable. Instead, the S&P 500 rallied 8% through March, hit new all-time highs, and the 'overvalued' mega-cap tech stocks kept marching higher. By April 2026, the market hadn't experienced the predicted correction. Goldman's earnings downgrades that supposedly justified the bearish call? Wrong. The recession fears? Evaporated. Even their risk/reward analysis became a masterclass in how to look smart while being completely wrong.

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