BitMEX Founder Said Bitcoin Would "Ascend to $250,000 by Year-End." He Was So Confident He Kept Buying. It Closed at $87,500.

Arthur Hayes wasn't just making a prediction — he was putting his money where his mouth was. In his Substack post, he bragged about "buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500," absolutely certain the Fed pivot would send BTC rocketing to a quarter million dollars. He doubled down at conferences throughout the year, insisting $250K was inevitable. By December, he had to publicly admit his prediction was "seriously wrong." Bitcoin closed 2025 at $87,500 — a 65% miss from his target. The Fed never pivoted to QE. The dollars never flooded. And Hayes learned that being the guy who built a crypto exchange doesn't mean you can predict where crypto is going.