JPMorgan Predicts Tesla "60% Downside to $145." Stock Rallies to $400.

Twelve days ago, JPMorgan doubled down on its most bearish Wall Street call, with lead automotive analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterating an Underweight rating and a $145 price target—implying roughly 60% downside from where the stock was trading at $352.82. Brinkman cited record inventory buildups, disappointing Q1 deliveries (358K units, missing consensus), and competition from BYD as catalysts for a further decline. The thesis: Tesla's core auto business has structural problems that the market is ignoring. Spoiler alert: Tesla had other plans. The stock rallied 11% in the next two trading days, accelerating the post-ceasefire risk-on rally, and has held gains to close April 18 at $400.62—a $55 move higher, or roughly 15%, since JPMorgan published the call. At current prices, JPMorgan's target implies only 64% downside remaining (it gets worse every day the stock rises). Meanwhile, Tesla's energy division continues to scale profitably, the Cybercab just entered mass production, and the Austin robotaxi fleet has expanded to 135 vehicles. Brinkman's framework assumes these emerging businesses contribute materially to the valuation, but the market seems willing to pay for them anyway.