McKinsey Told AT&T Cell Phones Would Never Take Off. They Were Off by 12,000%.

In 1980, AT&T—whose Bell Labs had literally invented cellular technology—hired the world's most prestigious consulting firm to forecast the mobile phone market. McKinsey's verdict: 900,000 subscribers by 2000. The actual number? 109 million. They were off by a factor of 121—missing the mark by over 12,000%. Based partly on this hilariously wrong projection, AT&T decided mobile phones weren't worth pursuing aggressively. The company that invented the technology essentially passed on one of the biggest business opportunities in human history because their $500/hour consultants couldn't imagine people wanting phones in their pockets. Today there are more mobile subscriptions than humans on Earth. McKinsey's forecast remains the gold standard for how not to predict technology adoption—and a reminder that sometimes the smartest guys in the room are just expensive weather forecasters in suits.