Wall Street Predicted Cisco Would Be the First Trillion-Dollar Company. It Took 25 Years Just to Recover.

In February 2000, with Cisco trading at $132 (pre-split), Weinstein declared Cisco was destined to become the world's first trillion-dollar company. He set a 6-12 month price target above $160. Other analysts chimed in with gems like "at 28% growth, Cisco is probably worth 150-175 times earnings." The company was trading at 220x earnings—a valuation that would require it to rival the size of the American economy to justify. Within a month, Cisco hit $80 (post-split) and briefly became the world's most valuable company at $569 billion. Then reality struck. Within one year, Cisco lost 85% of its value. That trillion-dollar target? Apple wouldn't reach it until 2018—eighteen years later. As for Cisco, it took until late 2025—a quarter century—just to claw back to its dot-com highs. The lesson? When an analyst tells you a 220x P/E is "justified," maybe don't listen.