Jeremy Grantham's "Superbubble" That Refused to Pop

In January 2022, Jeremy Grantham — a man who had correctly called the 2000 and 2008 bubbles — declared we were in a "superbubble" and predicted the S&P 500 would plunge nearly 50%. By July 2023, he still gave the crash a 70% probability. What actually happened? The S&P 500 gained 26.3% in 2023, followed by 25% in 2024, and another 16% in 2025. That's three consecutive years of double-digit gains while Grantham kept waiting for the bubble to pop. The market has roughly doubled since his superbubble call. To be fair, he's been calling bubbles since 2014, occasionally updating his thesis while the market keeps making new all-time highs. Even legends can be too early — and in markets, too early is the same as wrong.