Aged Like Milk

JPMorgan's "Gandalf" Predicted a 23% Crash. The Market Rallied 23% Instead.

Posted February 09, 2026

"The S&P 500 will plunge to 4,200 by the end of this year."

— Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist

June 2024

What Actually Happened

Marko Kolanovic earned the nickname "Gandalf" for his uncanny market predictions, including a legendary 2020 call that stocks would recover from COVID within months. But the wizard's crystal ball shattered spectacularly in his final act. In June 2024, he warned of a 23-25% crash to 4,200 on the S&P 500 — the most bearish forecast on Wall Street. Instead, the S&P 500 rallied 23% to close near 5,900. The cruel irony? He was bullish in 2022 when the market dropped 19%, then turned bearish right before a 26% rally in 2023. By July 2024, JPMorgan and their wizard had "mutually agreed to explore other opportunities." Turns out even Gandalf can't fight the Fed — or be wrong for three straight years.

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