Two Economists Promised Dow 36,000 in 3-5 Years. It Took 22 Years. One Later Advised the President.

In the heat of dot-com mania, Glassman and Hassett published what the Washington Post would later call "perhaps the most spectacularly wrong investing book ever." Their thesis? Stocks were so safe they should trade at much higher valuations. The Dow was around 11,000 at the time. Their timeline: 36,000 by 2002-2004.

What actually happened? The dot-com bubble popped six months later. The Dow crashed to 7,286. It would take until November 2021—twenty-two years—to finally hit 36,000.

The kicker? Kevin Hassett went on to become Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump. Glassman became an under secretary of state. Both were confirmed unanimously by the Senate.

Glassman later admitted their key mistake: "Never associate a date with a number." Sage advice, 22 years too late.