Moody's Chief Economist Said Recession Was "A Real Threat." Two Weeks Later, The Economy Didn't Have Other Plans.

On March 25, amid elevated geopolitical tensions with Iran and surging energy prices, Moody's Analytics raised its recession odds to 48.6% for the next 12 months. Zandi warned that if oil prices stayed elevated through Q2, the U.S. would "push into recession." He was part of a chorus: Goldman Sachs raised odds to 30%, Wilmington Trust to 45%, and EY Parthenon to 40%. Consumers panicked—65% expected a recession within 12 months. Fast forward to April 8. The economy didn't cooperate. GDP is still tracking growth, unemployment remains steady, and Vanguard merely "modestly recalibrated" growth expectations downward. No recession. As one industry veteran noted, Wall Street economists are collectively "subject to the old trope about predicting nine of the last five recessions." Mark Zandi just authored chapter nine.