Hedge Fund Manager Said Google Would Be "Highly Disappointing." Asked Us to Hold Him to It. We Did.

Just weeks before Google's August 2004 IPO at $85 per share, hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson wrote a widely-read article declaring the search giant would be a disaster for investors. His reasoning? Google couldn't possibly maintain its market lead because some new competitor would "come out of nowhere" to unseat it. He compared it unfavorably to McDonald's and asked readers to "hold him to that" prediction.

We're holding him to it.

Google IPO'd at $85. After a 20-for-1 stock split, that original share is now worth over $6,100 — a 7,100% return. The company Tilson was "virtually certain" would disappoint now has a market cap exceeding $2 trillion. It dominates search, ads, cloud computing, mobile operating systems, and is a leader in AI. Meanwhile, those McDonald's shares Tilson preferred? They're up about 700% — solid, but roughly one-tenth of Google's returns.

To his credit, Tilson later admitted his mistake, calling it one of his worst predictions ever. But when you literally ask people to hold you accountable for being wrong about one of the greatest investments of the century... we're going to oblige.