Aged Like Milk

Goldman Sachs: Rate Cuts in March & June (April 2026 Update: Best I Can Do Is December)

Posted May 12, 2026

"Hatzius expects the Fed to pause its cutting cycle in January before delivering cuts in March and June, pushing the funds rate down to a terminal level of 3-3.25%"

— Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, December 2025

December 3, 2025

What Actually Happened

When Goldman's chief economist promised rate cuts in March and June 2026, he sounded pretty sure. Just five months later, Goldman wiped that forecast completely off the board. The new timeline? December 2026 and March 2027—a 9-month delay. The excuse: energy shocks and geopolitical tensions kept inflation "elevated." Translation: We didn't see it coming. The real lesson: Economist forecasts have a half-life shorter than radioactive isotopes. By the time they're published, they're already outdated.

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