Aged Like Milk

Goldman Sachs: Crypto Downturn Means Coinbase Is Toast. (Narrator: It Wasn't.)

Posted May 08, 2026

"While there are many strategic initiatives ongoing at Coinbase, we expect the decline in trading volumes will weigh on profitability, and with little valuation support we move shares to Underweight."

— Goldman Sachs Analyst, Q1 2026

April 2026

What Actually Happened

Goldman Sachs took a walk on the crypto bear thesis in early 2026, convinced that weak trading volumes at the start of the year meant Coinbase was permanently damaged goods. They slapped an 'Underweight' rating on the stock, betting that the fundamental deterioration would be obvious to everyone else. Problem: they mistook a temporary seasonal lull for an industry death spiral. By May, crypto trading volume had rebounded sharply, Bitcoin was running, and options flow looked spicy. COIN rallied past their price targets. The decline they were so sure about? It's become the 'buy the dip' moment traders have been talking about for weeks. Turns out, analyzing crypto volume without understanding market cycles is a losing game.

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