Motley Fool: 70% Odds of S&P 500 Crash in 2026. SPX Then Said "Nah."

The Motley Fool published a confident call based on 70 years of midterm election data: in 12 of 17 midterm cycles, the S&P 500 fell into correction territory. They predicted an 18% average intra-year drawdown and warned investors to mentally prepare for pain. Fast forward two months: the market did dip 8% in early March but rallied 2.9% on March 31st and kept climbing. The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, utterly indifferent to election cycle superstitions. Turns out, AI spending and Fed rate cuts were a stronger tailwind than 70 years of political history. The Motley Fool's statistical model forgot to account for one variable: the market doesn't actually care about their patterns.