Goldman Sachs: AI Capex Cycle 'Already Peaked.' Microsoft Azure: 39% YoY Growth. Awkward.

In early February 2026, Goldman Sachs published a bearish thesis on Big Tech capex, arguing that the AI infrastructure build-out was already topping out and that companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google would shift to 'optimization mode.' The recommendation? Reduce exposure to cloud infrastructure stocks. The actual outcome: Azure reported 39% YoY AI revenue growth in Q1 2026, Microsoft's capex guidance remained aggressive, and the entire hyperscaler complex reaccelerated through March. Meanwhile, Goldman's clients who followed the 'shift to optimization' call got assigned watching Microsoft rally back toward its highs while being underweight. Optimization turns out to look a lot like 'keep spending like crazy on AI chips.'