Elliott Wave Guru Robert Prechter Told Investors to Go 200% Short in 2009. The Market Tripled.

In November 2009, with the S&P 500 just beginning its recovery from the financial crisis lows, Robert Prechter — the godfather of Elliott Wave analysis — told his followers to go 200% short. That means betting double your portfolio that the market would crash.

What happened? The S&P 500 proceeded to more than triple over the next decade, one of the greatest bull runs in market history.

But this was just one call in a lifetime of apocalyptic predictions. Prechter turned bearish before the 1987 crash (which he got right), then stayed bearish... forever. He predicted the Dow would fall to 1000. He recommended shorting stocks throughout the 2010s. His newsletter accumulated a jaw-dropping -18.1% annualized return over 20 years while buy-and-hold returned +12% annually.

The Hulbert Financial Digest gave him a guru accuracy rating of just 21% — well below the 47% average. His forecasting horizon was so long that, as one analyst noted, "testing multiple independent forecasts within his or any evaluator's lifetime is problematic." Translation: he'd be wrong until everyone forgot, then claim he was early.

The lesson? Being right once (1987) doesn't give you a lifetime pass. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent — and sometimes what looks irrational is just... right.