Jeremy Grantham Said Stocks Looked "As Poor as Almost Any Other Time in History." The S&P 500 Then Rallied 31%.

Grantham, the legendary bubble-hunter who correctly called the dot-com crash and 2008 crisis, had been warning of imminent doom for years. In March 2024, he published a report titled "The Great Paradox of the US Market!" declaring that the Shiller P/E ratio of 34 was in the "top 1% of historical range" and that the AI bubble would "at least temporarily deflate." He also predicted a recession was likely. Instead, the S&P 500 rallied from ~5,100 to over 6,700 — a 31% gain. The AI trade kept running. No recession materialized. Grantham's GMO fund has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 300% since 2011 while he's been calling for crashes. Sometimes being right once in 2000 and 2008 means you've been wrong for most of the other 24 years.