"The Big Short" Hero Predicted Recession "By Any Definition" in 2023. The S&P 500 Rallied 24% Instead.
Posted February 26, 2026
— Michael Burry, "The Big Short" investor and founder of Scion Asset Management
January 2, 2023
What Actually Happened
Michael Burry became a legend for predicting the 2008 housing crash. Since then, he's been predicting the next apocalypse roughly every 6 months. In 2023, he confidently declared America would be in recession "by any definition" in the second half of the year. What actually happened? GDP grew 2.5%, unemployment stayed near historic lows, and the S&P 500 posted a blistering 24% gain. Not a single quarter of negative growth. By any definition, Burry was spectacularly wrong. Analysis shows about 71% of his major calls since 2008 have missed the mark. Turns out being right once doesn't mean you're right forever — but it does mean you can keep getting quoted as an oracle while missing call after call. The "Big Short" sequel: "The Big Wrong."
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