Wedbush Predicted an iPhone "Super Cycle." Apple Got an Ice Cycle Instead.

Summer 2024: Wall Street was absolutely certain that Apple Intelligence would spark a generational iPhone upgrade cycle. Wedbush painted a picture of pent-up demand, 270 million outdated handsets, and a 15%+ upgrade rate. The iPhone 16 was going to be unstoppable. By Q4 2024, the narrative had frozen solid. iPhone sales didn't just miss—they declined year-over-year. Apple's market share slipped to 18%. Apple Intelligence itself was delayed, limited to newer models only, and apparently not the "killer app" that would make people drop $1,200 on new hardware. The super cycle became a supervised decline. Even by October 2025, analysts were quietly hoping Apple could inspire *any* upgrade cycle at all, Apple Intelligence-free.